Top Treasury Risks: Uncertainty in Washington and Geopolitics

# Risk Management

# AI

# Geopolitics

Beyond risks, NeuGroup’s 2026 Outlook Survey shows treasurers focused on forecasting, AI and transformation.

Months before war broke out in the Middle East, two-thirds of corporate treasurers surveyed ranked geopolitical conditions among the greatest risks facing them, according to NeuGroup's newly released 2026 Treasury Outlook Report.

Geopolitical risk ranked second (66%), up one spot from 2025 and just behind political, legislative and regulatory uncertainty (71%)—the top concern in last year’s survey as well—reflecting ongoing angst within finance orgs about the persistence of tariffs as well as political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, among other concerns.

The survey, conducted in December 2025 and January 2026, also reveals a defined set of 2026 objectives: improving cash forecasting, embedding AI into treasury workflows and modernizing operating models—the way treasury teams work and achieve desired outcomes.

Market volatility and recession fears. The Middle East war now unsettling financial markets and sending the price of oil higher may raise treasury’s fears of an economic downturn as it awakens memories of the extreme market volatility following the Trump administration’s unveiling of tariffs in 2025.

But in the 2026 Outlook Survey, treasurers ranked a slowing economy third, down from the second spot in 2025 when the tariff threat loomed larger. Meanwhile, financial market volatility has moved one level to fifth place, replacing cybersecurity, which continues to decline as a top concern.

Forecasting and AI: Improving efficiency and execution. While corporates navigate the ramifications of war and other risks, treasury teams are pressing ahead with modernization efforts—often while slowing hiring and being asked to do more with existing staff.

Improving cash forecasting accuracy leads the 2026 objectives, with 70% of respondents focused on strengthening forecast precision to support day-to-day decision-making.

AI and automation rank second. As expectations rise for efficiency and speed, teams are working to embed practical AI applications into treasury workflows. Some organizations report measurable progress; others continue testing use cases to determine where technology can deliver tangible operational benefit.

That push toward automation is reflected in talent priorities. Hiring and promotion dropped from the sixth most important objective in 2025 to the 10th in 2026, underscoring a greater emphasis on productivity and technology-enabled efficiency rather than team expansion.

Optimizing internal liquidity now ranks third, and capital structure management has declined compared with last year. The movement suggests a function concentrating resources on forecasting and technology initiatives while maintaining discipline around liquidity and funding.

To read the full survey findings, including more detailed breakdowns of how members ranked treasury’s risks, objectives, obstacles and more, download the full report now.

Top Treasury Risks: Uncertainty in Washington and Geopolitics

Beyond risks, NeuGroup’s 2026 Outlook Survey shows treasurers focused on forecasting, AI and transformation.

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